Israel is flirting with the next intifada

FEW, IF ANy, security forces are as ruthlessly effective as Israel’s. Its military and intelligence services strike against enemies even at extreme distances. In the past couple of years alone Israel has assassinated dozens of opponents inside Iran, plus proxy militia leaders in Lebanon and Yemen. Israel’s martial capabilities earn respect even from its bitterest enemies.

Yet this superiority seems to count for little closer to home. Those same forces are responsible for a dire failure in the occupied West Bank, where violent Israeli settlers have been attacking Palestinian residents with increasing brutality. Settlers want to force Palestinians from their land and claim it for themselves.

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Israel’s failure in the West Bank can hardly be put down to a lack of resources. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) deploy 25 combat battalions there. Shin Bet, the powerful security agency, has networks of agents and informers throughout. But these are used mostly to protect the 500,000 or so Israeli settlers, and against the threat of terrorist attacks, not to assist the more than 3m Palestinians who live in the territory. This has largely been the case since Israel replaced Jordan as occupier of the West Bank in 1967.

What has changed is the behaviour of many „outlaw” settlers. Never before have they acted as violently as today. Crucially, never before have they enjoyed the impunity the current government gives them. Since the Hamas attack in October 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza, over 1,100 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank. Only rarely does the IDF intervene against settlers. In Qusra, for example, an entire battalion was recently deployed against those who were invading Palestinian homes. But the soldiers found themselves fruitlessly chasing youngsters over the hills. Troops from another unit joined the settlers in prayers. No arrests were made.

The ineffectual response can be explained by the stance of Israel’s government. The IDF knows that Binyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, sides squarely with the most extreme settlers. It appears that the IDF was dispatched to Qusra only after American diplomatic pressure which arose because an American citizen owns a home there.

Mr Netanyahu has appointed radical settlers, who support ethnic cleansing, to key cabinet positions. In the rare cases when the IDF has sought to rein in violent settlers, the defence minister, Israel Katz, has berated his generals. The government has authorised around 200 settler outposts in less than four years. This just whets the settlers’ appetite for more.

In the months leading up to Israel’s election on October 27th the situation could get even worse. The settlers will probably attempt more land grabs, fearing the vote may lead to a new government that will curb their aggression. Meanwhile, for Israel’s long-serving prime minister, an alliance with the far right has become the key to remaining in office. Mr Netanyahu will keep enabling the settlers unless he is forced to back down.

As Palestinians come to believe they face inevitable eviction, the danger is of conflagration in the West Bank or even another intifada. Such an uprising would be a disaster for Israelis and Palestinians alike. Yet Mr Netanyahu seems willing to take the risk, if it helps his chances of political survival.

That would fit a pattern. Mr Netanyahu has rejected the latest agreement brokered by America for the disarmament of Hamas and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, lest it anger the far right. He has continued to order air strikes in Lebanon and Syria, despite the chance to agree on more secure borders. Behind in the polls, he is doubling down on empty promises to vanquish Israel’s enemies. Only pressure from Donald Trump might get him to ease off. This Israeli government may be in its final months. Its potential to cause damage remains.

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